Kusadasi

View of the Aegean Sea and the city from the hotel room in Kusadasi (Trying out the panoramic photo feature not sure how it will come out)

Heiropolis

Haven't had much time to post anything the last couple days as we've been on the move and are currently on the Aegean Sea in the city of Kusadasi.

Yesterday before our agricultural visits we were able to visit the ancient city of Heiropolis near the modern city of Pamukkale. Pictures show the main thoroughfare of the ancient city which sits atop a ridge covered in white calcium deposits.

Antalya

So if it hadn't quite sunk in that I was in Turkey, it did this morning when I woke up at 5:30am and thought I could catch the end of the Super Bowl (which I wasn't watching for the first time in about 35 years). I wasn't able to find a broadcast of the game but did find the winning score on the internet about the time that the call to morning prayer at the nearby mosque, blared from loudspeakers and echoed through the city.

I had slept well after a busy day and a half without sleep. After arriving the previous (Sunday) morning and checking into the hotel our guides took us on a walking tour of Antalya, a city of about 1 million. Like many cities, it has a rich history with Roman and other influences. The photos below are of the view from the hotel balcony, the arch to the old city and views of the Mediterranean and the sheltered harbor surrounded by cliffs that first attracted settlers to this area.

Aspendos

Our agricultural visits today brought us near the ancient city of Aspendos, about 45 minutes East of Antalya. Though the city's origins predate the Roman period, (it, like much of modern Turkey was part of the Roman empire at one time) it is one of the best preserved Roman theaters in the world, built about 160 to 200 AD.

Unbelievably well preserved, our guide says it holds 15-20,000 people though that estimate seems a little high unless the ancient Romans were tiny. They still hold opera and ballet performances there.

We also visited the nearby ruins of an aqueduct from the same period which brought water from the nearby mountains to Aspendos' acropolis. Not nearly as well preserved, it's still impressive how they brought the water down from the mountains through the valley and up to the city on the hill.

Turkey Time Warp

Arrived safely here in Istanbul at a little after 6 am local time Sunday - 11 pm (Saturday) on the East Coast, after about a nine hour flight.

Ours was not a usual "redeye" over night flight. It was more of a "faux" redeye. We left early afternoon and were given dinner at about 4 PM and after the lights were dimmed for a few hours, were served breakfast at 9 PM (eastern) before landing. Not anyone's typical daily schedule. I suppose it is meant to get us adjusted to the local time zone.

So as a result not many people slept much on the plane (including myself) since many (including myself) would just be going to bed about the time the flight landed. Not complaining mind you, and I'm thankful that the travel has gone smoothly so far.

Anyway this post is intended as a trial run to make sure I can post entries from the road. This also allows me to get some of my logistical observations out of the way. I don't plan to focus on them in my future blog posts about the trip. I may lose my faithful readers if I start talking about the tour bus and what kind of plane we flew from Istanbul to Antalya :-) (don't know yet, btw). More to come!

Turkey prep

And no I don't mean one to eat, I mean the country! Just trying to get my mobile devices ready for the trip.

Derby Picks 2012

So many horses and so many ways to handicap them, and through the years, I’ve taken many angles for making my Derby picks.  With the best 3 year olds from across the country, you could make a case for almost any one of the 20 horses in the field.  In fact, the last time I posted my picks two years ago, I did just that. 

This year I’m taking a different approach, dividing the field into four groups and picking one from each – those with singe digit morning line (“ML”) odds (4), those with double digit ML odds, but less than 20-1 (6), those with ML odds of 20-1 or 30-1 (5)  and those with odds of 50-1 (5 -- I’m leaving out My Adonis, who’s in the Also Eligible category). 

Anyone who bets wants to win, but as an occasional bettor, I want to cash a ticket that buys more than one mint julep, which is why I often look beyond the favorites.   So with this approach I’m trying to identify the best choice at each comparable level of betting risk.        

Before I get to the picks, a shout out to Bourbon Trail racing and Bourbon Courage for a game effort in the Derby Trial – I look forward to seeing him back on the track. 

The favorites --  (Bodemiester, Union Rags, Gemologist and Dullahan)

With a field of 20, anything can happen, but the top of the field seems to be strong this year.  In its lead story today, DRF.com’s headline reads “The big two leave little room at the top.”  I disagree, as I think you have to put Gemologist right there with Union Rags and Bodemiester. 

Though he’s coming off a solid win in the Blue Grass, I’m ruling out Dullahan as I’m not a big fan of horses moving over from the poly, which was a good theory until Animal Kingdom disproved it last year (good thing I didn’t publish my picks!). 

Hard to put aside Union Rags for his third in the Florida Derby, but you have to make the call somehow.  Harder still to not pick Bodemiester after winning impressively in the Arkansas Derby, and posting a gaudy Beyer of 108, but I’m going with Gemologist.  I like his connections, his 5 for 5 lifetime record, including a gritty win last time out in the Wood, and two previous wins at Churchill.  

Value plays – (Hansen, I’ll Have Another, Creative Cause, Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha)

This group is almost as hard to pick as the last one and proves what a great race the Derby is when the value plays include the winners of the Santa Anita Derby and the Florida Derby.  The six horses in this group collectively had three firsts and three seconds (by less than a combined two lengths) in their last starts.  You wouldn’t go wrong with any of them, and if the ML odds hold, you’ll be able to buy more than a mint julep with a  winning ticket.

I’m going to give Creative Cause a slight nod over Calvin Borel and Florida Derby winner, Take Charge Indy among this group.  With his solid second in the Santa Anita last time out and a big effort in winning the San Felipe two back, Creative Cause has never missed the board in 8 lifetime starts, and ran a solid third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year. 

True, Creative Cause was beaten in the Juvenile by Hansen, who came in second in the Blue Grass his last race, and was beaten by a nose by I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita, but that’s why it’s a tough race to handicap.   Also tough to overlook Alpha who ran second to Gemologist in the Wood and Daddy Nose Best, who posted a nice Beyer in  winning the Sunland Derby, the unconventional route that seems more conventional ever since the race produced 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird.    

Longshots – (El Padrino, Went the Day Well, Prospective, Daddy Long Legs, Sabercat)

There’s a bigger drop off between this group and the last one, though each of them owns at least one graded stakes win. 

A little easier for me to pick this group, as I’m taking Daddy Long Legs over Went the Day Well.  Admittedly, I’m putting a lot of stock in DLL’s victory in the U.A.E. Derby in his last time race choosing to ignore his tough draw in the number one post and his 12th place finish in the Juvenile last time at Churchill, but that’s why his morning line is 30-1.  Went the Day Well merits consideration as he tries to duplicate Animal Kingdom’s path to the Derby coming off a March win in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway.    

Bombers – (Optimizer, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Done Talking, Liason)

Another dropoff in this group, but still interesting that all but Optimizer have graded stake wins, and two of them have wins in their last starts. 

My head says that if I had to pick one from this group, I’d go with D. Wayne and Optimizer, throwing out his Arkansas Derby performance and focusing on his second in the Rebel at Oaklawn the previous outing.  My heart tells me to go with Done Talking, winner of the Illinois Derby last time out.  Seems like that prep race has gone down market the last few years, but Done Talking would be a sentimental choice as this year is the 10th anniversary of Illinois Derby winner War Emblem donning the blanket of roses en route to winning two-thirds of the triple crown. 

Instead I’ll go with Trinniberg, on the strength of two strong wins in his last two starts.  The “experts” would scoff at that notion given his front running style and that 7 furlongs is the longest he’s gone, and they’re probably right.  It would take something crazy happening, but then that’s what we’re talking about here. 

So there you have it, a horse for all rungs of the pari-mutuel ladder.  Of course, it’s always interesting to see how the betting public ranks them compared to oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, as some of the horses may jump up or down a rung.  Whether you’re shooting to simply cash a ticket to buy yourself a mint julep, or hit the superfecta and buy them for the whole bar, good luck and enjoy the race!