So many horses and so many ways to
handicap them, and through the years, I’ve taken many angles for making my Derby picks. With
the best 3 year olds from across the country, you could make a case for almost
any one of the 20 horses in the field. In
fact, the last time I posted my picks two years ago, I did just that.
This year I’m taking a different approach,
dividing the field into four groups and picking one from each – those with
singe digit morning line (“ML”) odds (4), those with double digit ML odds, but
less than 20-1 (6), those with ML odds of 20-1 or 30-1 (5) and those
with odds of 50-1 (5 -- I’m leaving out My Adonis, who’s in the Also Eligible
category).
Anyone who bets wants to win, but as an
occasional bettor, I want to cash a ticket that buys more than one mint julep,
which is why I often look beyond the favorites. So with this
approach I’m trying to identify the best choice at each comparable level of
betting risk.
Before I get to the picks, a shout out to
Bourbon Trail racing and Bourbon Courage for a game effort in the Derby Trial –
I look forward to seeing him back on the track.
The favorites -- (Bodemiester, Union Rags, Gemologist and Dullahan)
With a field of 20, anything can
happen, but the top of the field seems to be strong this year. In its lead story today, DRF.com’s headline reads
“The big two leave little room at the top.” I disagree, as I think you have to put Gemologist right
there with Union Rags and Bodemiester.
Though he’s coming off a solid win
in the Blue Grass, I’m ruling out Dullahan as I’m not a big fan of horses
moving over from the poly, which was a good theory until Animal Kingdom
disproved it last year (good thing I didn’t publish my picks!).
Hard to put aside Union Rags for
his third in the Florida Derby, but you have to make the call somehow. Harder still to not pick Bodemiester after winning
impressively in the Arkansas Derby, and posting a gaudy Beyer of 108, but I’m
going with Gemologist. I like his connections, his 5 for 5 lifetime record,
including a gritty win last time out in the Wood, and two previous wins at
Churchill.
Value plays – (Hansen, I’ll Have Another, Creative Cause, Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha)
This group is almost as hard to
pick as the last one and proves what a great race the Derby is when the value plays include the winners of the Santa
Anita Derby and the Florida Derby. The
six horses in this group collectively had three firsts and three seconds (by
less than a combined two lengths) in their last starts. You wouldn’t go wrong with any of them, and if the ML
odds hold, you’ll be able to buy more than a mint julep with a winning ticket.
I’m going to give Creative Cause a
slight nod over Calvin Borel and Florida Derby winner, Take Charge Indy among
this group. With his solid second
in the Santa Anita last time out and a big effort in winning the San Felipe two
back, Creative Cause has never missed the board in 8 lifetime starts, and ran a
solid third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year.
True, Creative Cause was
beaten in the Juvenile by Hansen, who came in second in the Blue Grass his last
race, and was beaten by a nose by I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita, but
that’s why it’s a tough race to handicap. Also tough to overlook Alpha who ran second to Gemologist
in the Wood and Daddy Nose Best, who posted a nice Beyer in winning the Sunland Derby, the unconventional route that
seems more conventional ever since the race produced 2009 Derby winner Mine
That Bird.
Longshots – (El Padrino, Went the Day Well, Prospective, Daddy Long Legs, Sabercat)
There’s a bigger drop off between
this group and the last one, though each of them owns at least one graded
stakes win.
A little easier for me to pick
this group, as I’m taking Daddy Long Legs over Went the Day Well. Admittedly, I’m putting a lot of stock in DLL’s victory in the
U.A.E. Derby in his last time race choosing to ignore his tough draw in the
number one post and his 12th place finish
in the Juvenile last time at Churchill, but that’s why his morning line is
30-1. Went the Day Well merits
consideration as he tries to duplicate Animal Kingdom’s path to the Derby coming off a March win in the Spiral Stakes at
Turfway.
Bombers – (Optimizer, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Done Talking, Liason)
Another dropoff in this group, but still
interesting that all but Optimizer have graded stake wins, and two of them have
wins in their last starts.
My head says that if I had to pick one from this
group, I’d go with D. Wayne and Optimizer, throwing out his Arkansas Derby
performance and focusing on his second in the Rebel at Oaklawn the previous
outing. My heart tells me to go
with Done Talking, winner of the Illinois Derby last time out. Seems like that prep race has gone down market the last few
years, but Done Talking would be a sentimental choice as this year is the 10th anniversary of Illinois Derby winner War Emblem donning the
blanket of roses en route to winning two-thirds of the triple crown.
Instead I’ll go with Trinniberg, on the strength of two strong wins in his last
two starts. The “experts” would
scoff at that notion given his front running style and that 7 furlongs is the
longest he’s gone, and they’re probably right. It would take something crazy happening, but then that’s
what we’re talking about here.
So there you have it, a horse for all rungs of
the pari-mutuel ladder. Of course,
it’s always interesting to see how the betting public ranks them compared to
oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, as some of the horses may jump up or down a rung. Whether you’re shooting to simply cash a ticket to buy
yourself a mint julep, or hit the superfecta and buy them for the whole bar,
good luck and enjoy the race!
