In keeping with the eclectic nature of this golf blog I'm posting my almost annual Derby picks. (It's a big tent golf blog -- after all, golf is played on Bluegrass and Kentucky is the Bluegrass state -- never mind.] This time they were solicited by my Cornell pal Mike McMahon who's in the business. He posted my Preakness picks last year on his site http://www.mcmahonbloodstock.com/ , so you can find these picks there too. And if you don't believe me, you can get free past performances at drf.com and handicap it yourself. http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/136.html Enjoy!
Derby 2010: Favorites, Longshots, and Everything in Between
By Tom Cosgrove, special to mcmahonbloodstock.com
In the 2000 edition of the Kentucky Derby, a highly touted three-year old with an exotic name, won impressively at the Wood Memorial and went on to win the Derby as a solid favorite. It looked like the same storyline was unfolding for the 2010 Derby – until Sunday.
Scratched this past weekend, Eskendereya will not repeat the feat of Fusaichi Pegasus, the 2000 Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby winner. Until Saturday, this year’s Derby may be known as much for the horse that isn’t starting as the 20 in the gate – until about 6:35 pm, when one of them gets a blanket of roses draped over its saddle and the talk of the elusive triple crown begins.
In the years since Fu Peg’s victory, the winners have been a mixture of favorites, long shots and everything in between. But in the last seven years the winner has been either a favorite or near favorite (Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (near favorite, 2006), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008)) or a complete bomber like Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009). And while Funny Cide (2003) wasn’t a true longshot, his win was a shock to many, and since he’s a New York-bred and I know the connections ;-), I was looking for an excuse to mention him.
So I’m going to handicap this year’s Derby looking for an angle on all 20, with the idea that just about any one of them could be wearing that blanket of roses on Saturday.
The field
Lookin At Lucky – One would think it’s a tough post for the ML favorite, but as many winners have come from the one post (12) as any other. Still a lot (as in everything) will depend on the trip. You can throw out the third place in the Santa Anita Derby as no winner has prepped in that race since the polytrack was installed, and instead refer back to the 6 of 7 lifetime prior with his only loss coming in the form of a second in the BC Juvenile. Baffert has a good one here.
Ice Box – It’s rare the Florida Derby winner gets a ML as high as 10-1, so there could be some value here. Then again, Zito trained Ice Box entered that race lightly regarded, but he’s clearly moving in the right direction.
Noble’s Promise – One of the top juveniles last year, he began his three year old campaign in the Rebel Stakes with a solid second to Lookin at Lucky. The last time out at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby he managed only a 5th, but you can chalk that up to a rough trip – worth a look.
Super Saver – Pletcher entry Super Saver comes off a close second in the Arkansas Derby, and won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill last November, but the most compelling reason to play him may be the magician on his back, Calvin Borel.
Line of David – I had to go back and check to make sure I hadn’t copied it down wrong as to why the Arkansas Derby winner has ML odds of 30-1. Granted he was a maiden only two races before, but it’s not like they gave him a head start at Oaklawn. I’d be surprised if his odds stay that high, but should still provide some value.
Stately Victor – Just like Line of David, Mike Bettaglia isn’t showing any love to the Blue Grass Stakes winner with a ML of 30-1, only slightly lower than SV’s odds before he won at Keeneland . Like the Santa Anita Derby, the Blue Grass doesn’t seem to prep many winners, but Street Sense parlayed a second place finish there to a Derby win three years ago. Can’t count out a horse that won a Grade I his last time out.
American Lion – Those who have read my triple crown picks before know I have a soft spot for the Illinois Derby winner ever since War Emblem followed up his win there with a Derby victory in 2002. His winning Beyer figure of 98 is about as good as any horse in the field and with a ML of 30-1, it’s another reason the Derby is one of the most fun races to bet.
Dean’s Kitten – So the Grade 2 Lane’s End back in March at Turfway isn’t the pre-eminent prep race, but Dean’s Kitten won it. It’s a better resume than last year’s winner Mine that Bird whose last prep was a fourth place finish in the Sunland Derby. With a 50-1 ML, this may be a longshot with a shot.
Make Music for Me – So this one’s a little (OK, a lot) tougher to like coming off a 6th in the Blue Grass with only one win in eight lifetime tries. That W came on the turf at Santa Anita two back posting a 93 Beyer. So there’s that, or maybe you’re in a band or just really like the number nine.
Paddy O’Prado – Coming off a second in the Blue Grass and a win at the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes, Paddy O’Prado also boasts a top notch pilot in Kent Desormeaux and will most certainly have double digit odds come post time.
Devil May Care – While Devil May Care comes in with all the hype any filly brings to a triple crown race, she also brings the top Beyer in field, earned in the Bonnie Miss Stakes her last time out. And she’ll be carrying 5 fewer pounds than the boys – of his five entries, she may be Pletcher’s best shot in Eskendereya’s absence.
Conveyance – So why shouldn’t the Sunland Derby produce the Kentucky Derby winner two years in a row? Conveyance placed second there last time out, but has won his other four career starts including wins in the Southwest and San Rafael early in the prep season. Baffert says that while stablemate Lookin at Lucky has gotten most of the attention, Conveyance shouldn’t be overlooked.
Jackson Bend – JB had a solid prep season and is coming off three straight seconds in the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth, and most recently in the Wood Memorial, where he won first place among horses not named Eskendereya. He doesn’t have the Big E to worry about this time and Nick Zito seems to have flown under the radar with this horse, which has never finished worse than second in nine lifetime starts, so watch out.
Mission Impazible – One of the most lightly raced of this year’s starters with only five career starts, this Pletcher trained entry didn’t have a Derby starter resume, but fixed that with a win in the Louisiana Derby. Here again, the winner of a major Derby prep comes in with hefty ML odds of 20-1, and should still have a good price come post time.
Discreetly Mine – DM was the favorite in the Louisana Derby when he was upset by his stablemate Mission Impazible, ultimately finishing fourth. He’d been the favorite thanks to a solid effort in winning the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds in his previous start. Given his name, this could be the sleeper horse among the Pletcher entries.
Awesome Act – AA literally threw a shoe in his last start in the Wood Memorial and still managed to finish third, and had won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct prior to that in his first start on dirt. He could be a good one to keep in the mix if the weather’s bad Saturday given his solid work in the slop on Tuesday.
Dublin – This Lukas entry is battle tested making his seventh straight start in graded stakes company and he hit the board in all three of his Derby preps at Oaklawn including a close third in the Arkansas Derby. Seems like it’s been a while since we’ve heard much from D. Wayne but with a good trip and a little luck of the Irish, perhaps it’s his time to return to the triple crown spotlight.
Backtalk – A distant third place finish in the Illinois Derby his last time out and you can see why his ML odds are 50-1. But this horse had two graded stake wins as a two year old, and is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. Only one of two horses to have a win on the track. He’s also 2 for 2 on wet tracks should that become a factor. Maybe not enough firepower with a career best 87 Beyer, but very interesting.
Homeboykris – This 50-1 longshot is tougher to make a case for but here goes. While his three year old campaign has been unimpressive, he showed promise with a win as a juvenile in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, and trainer Richard Dutrow has done it before with Big Brown. Then again, with Dutrow quoted as saying “We’d be on Cloud 9 if we could pick up a check,” Homeboykris may be a good choice if you’re a) a Yankees or Dodgers fan (he’s owned by Joe Torre), b) Johnny Unitas was your Dad’s favorite quarterback or c) you like Steely Dan (hey nineteen . . . ).
Sidney’s Candy – A tough slot for the second choice, but Big Brown won from the 20th post just two years ago. Though he’s never run off the poly, and I’ve made known my bias against those prepping at Santa Anita, hard to ignore his undefeated prep season peeling off wins in the San Vincente, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Owner, along with Devil May Care, of the top Beyer last time out (100) and owned by pounds-b-gon queen Jenny Craig, the oddly named Sidney’s Candy should be in the mix if he gets a good trip.
The bet(s)
Having tried to make the case for every horse in the field, it’s tough to narrow my choices, but here goes. I don’t bet that often, so I’m looking for value plays (bordering on longshots), not necessarily the best bet. My choices may change depending on track conditions and odds, but here’s where I’m leaning.
Most years I’ll try to fashion together some exotics. This year it seems like there are a bunch of interesting horses that should go off at decent odds, so I’m going to pick three to take across the board along with a “what the heck” triple box with those three plus Lookin at Lucky, which if I hit might require I fill out tax forms, one of the few times you don’t mind doing that.
4 - Super Saver
5- Line of David
7- American Lion
I’ll be tempted to take the $2 flyer win bet on 8 – Dean’s Kitten and 18- Backtalk depending on odds. Of course if I stay at this long enough, I could get all 20 back on the list, so time to close and enjoy the races. Good luck!
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Phil Mickelson -- guts of a champion
Anyone who had the stamina to slog through my 2009 US Open blog knows what a big Phil Mickelson fan I am, so I'm thrilled that Phil has won his 3rd green jacket. With all that his family's been through, it was great to see him pull it off and though in the end it was a three shot victory, he did it in classic heart-in-your-throat Phil fashion. Anyone who saw him saving par from the penetentiary on holes 9 through 11, let alone the "please don't, great shot" second shot on 13, knows what I mean.
Before Phil's wife and mother were diagnosed with breast cancer last year, Phil's win today would have been all about exorcizing the demons from the 2006 US Open 18th hole debacle at Winged Foot which came only a couple months after his last Masters win. But today was more about the feel good story of a bright spot for a family for whom everything, including winning major championships, has been put into perspective. Phil's long, silent hug with his wife behind the 18th green spoke volumes, and in listening to the post-game coverage, I haven't heard Winged Foot mentioned once.
My fanaticism for Phil notwithstanding, those of you who were privy to my 2008 pre-blog Masters treatise (when I stalked Fred Couples in the first round on his way to missing his first cut ever at Augusta) also won't be surprised I would have loved to see 50-year old Fred Couples win, perhaps more so than Phil (provided Phil didn't blow it). It's a simliar feeling to Phil's win in 2006, when Phil won but Fred was in contention. And with Fred's record at Augusta, and the ridiculous start (3 wins and a second in 4 starts) he's had on the Champions Tour I wasn't at all surprised he was a factor. And though he finished 6th, he was only 2 back after making a birdie at 9. A good showing and I was impressed that even after losing any realistic chance with a double at 12, he birdied 13, 14 and 17 on the way in to finish with a 71.
So if you follow my logic here, the only that might have topped Phil's victory, is a victory by Fred Couples. And the only thing that would have topped that, would have been an improbable victory by Tom Watson.
Time for a tip of the hat to Tom Watson. At 60, he finished in the top 20 and was one stroke off the lead after a first round 67, tying his career best at Augusta. I still can't bear to think about his near-miss at the British Open last summer, but the fact he's still competitive with the younger players is an inspiration to those of us to whom 60 used to seem old and now think that may be the next time we'll play golf with any frequency.
Tiger's return -- I'm glad Tiger's back. I wasn't rooting for him (not that I ever did), but certainly wasn't rooting against him. He played very well after such a long lay off, and the pre-tournament press conferences showed a contrite Tiger where he expressed regret for the issues in his personal life. In addition to the return of Tiger's exciting and amazing golf game, shooting 69 without his "A" game in the final round, as the week went on, you also saw the return of the insolent Tiger who always seems annoyed with the media, doesn't agree with the premise of interviewer's questions, and provides only abrupt responses to the press. I missed his playing but I didn't miss his post-round attitude. And while Tiger's not one to gush, just one, "Gee, I really appreciate the welcome I've had here at Augusta," would have been nice. Maybe I missed it.
It's another classic difference between Phil and Tiger. Sure, Phil sometimes gets uppity with the press, but he spars with the press good naturedly, and he gives much more of a look behind the curtain and more interesting quotes, even when delivering the abbreviated response. And he came up with one of the best quotes ever in response to the question (in reference to his daring shot from the pine straw to the 13th green) of what the difference is between a great shot and a smart shot. "A great shot is pulling it off under pressure while a smart shot is not having the guts to try it."
'Nuff said. Congrats Phil.
Before Phil's wife and mother were diagnosed with breast cancer last year, Phil's win today would have been all about exorcizing the demons from the 2006 US Open 18th hole debacle at Winged Foot which came only a couple months after his last Masters win. But today was more about the feel good story of a bright spot for a family for whom everything, including winning major championships, has been put into perspective. Phil's long, silent hug with his wife behind the 18th green spoke volumes, and in listening to the post-game coverage, I haven't heard Winged Foot mentioned once.
My fanaticism for Phil notwithstanding, those of you who were privy to my 2008 pre-blog Masters treatise (when I stalked Fred Couples in the first round on his way to missing his first cut ever at Augusta) also won't be surprised I would have loved to see 50-year old Fred Couples win, perhaps more so than Phil (provided Phil didn't blow it). It's a simliar feeling to Phil's win in 2006, when Phil won but Fred was in contention. And with Fred's record at Augusta, and the ridiculous start (3 wins and a second in 4 starts) he's had on the Champions Tour I wasn't at all surprised he was a factor. And though he finished 6th, he was only 2 back after making a birdie at 9. A good showing and I was impressed that even after losing any realistic chance with a double at 12, he birdied 13, 14 and 17 on the way in to finish with a 71.
So if you follow my logic here, the only that might have topped Phil's victory, is a victory by Fred Couples. And the only thing that would have topped that, would have been an improbable victory by Tom Watson.
Time for a tip of the hat to Tom Watson. At 60, he finished in the top 20 and was one stroke off the lead after a first round 67, tying his career best at Augusta. I still can't bear to think about his near-miss at the British Open last summer, but the fact he's still competitive with the younger players is an inspiration to those of us to whom 60 used to seem old and now think that may be the next time we'll play golf with any frequency.
Tiger's return -- I'm glad Tiger's back. I wasn't rooting for him (not that I ever did), but certainly wasn't rooting against him. He played very well after such a long lay off, and the pre-tournament press conferences showed a contrite Tiger where he expressed regret for the issues in his personal life. In addition to the return of Tiger's exciting and amazing golf game, shooting 69 without his "A" game in the final round, as the week went on, you also saw the return of the insolent Tiger who always seems annoyed with the media, doesn't agree with the premise of interviewer's questions, and provides only abrupt responses to the press. I missed his playing but I didn't miss his post-round attitude. And while Tiger's not one to gush, just one, "Gee, I really appreciate the welcome I've had here at Augusta," would have been nice. Maybe I missed it.
It's another classic difference between Phil and Tiger. Sure, Phil sometimes gets uppity with the press, but he spars with the press good naturedly, and he gives much more of a look behind the curtain and more interesting quotes, even when delivering the abbreviated response. And he came up with one of the best quotes ever in response to the question (in reference to his daring shot from the pine straw to the 13th green) of what the difference is between a great shot and a smart shot. "A great shot is pulling it off under pressure while a smart shot is not having the guts to try it."
'Nuff said. Congrats Phil.
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