Preakness

Couldn't resist taking a run through the Preakness field with my handicapping thoughts.

Preakness 2010 –

This year’s Preakness won’t have the hoopla of the 2009 edition, which ended with a jockey, instead of a horse, having a shot at the triple crown. After leaving surprise Derby winner Mine That Bird for Rachel Alexandra, Calvin Borel guided the filly to victory. Borel has a chance to capture the first two legs of the triple crown again this year, though this time he’ll be on the same horse.

And while it won’t have the “which horse do I ride” or “boys v. girl” drama of last year, as long as you have the Kentucky Derby winner in the starting gate, it’s a compelling storyline, even if though this year’s edition is not as intriguing from a handicapper’s perspective.

What’s most interesting in handicapping the Preakness each year is figuring out the newcomers. Most years the top finishers in the Derby find their way to Pimlico along with a few others, but this year’s contingent isn’t particularly notable. Only Paddy O’Prado (3rd), Lookin at Lucky (6th), Dublin (7th) and Jackson Bend (12th) are joining Derby champ Super Saver in making the trip from Louisville to Baltimore. The most glaring absence is Ice Box, the Derby’s fast closing second place finisher, who may reappear at the Belmont in June.

The rest of the Preakness field is usually filled with horses which weren’t quite ready by Derby time and opted for another prep race, or horses that were on the Derby trail, but didn’t get in because their career earnings were too low.

In terms of alternate prep races, there are two entrants from the Derby Trial, a Grade 3 run the week before the Derby, though unfortunately Hurricane Ike, the winner, will miss the Preakness due to injury. The other angle I like to play is giving a look to the winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, which is run at Pimlico the day of the Derby. That’s now only a $70K race, which may be a reason its winner Bank the Eight isn’t in the Preakness field.

So that leaves five others, who had been running the Derby preps and didn’t run in the Derby, but I’ll take a quick look at the whole field.

1- Aikenite – Not sure the second place finish at the Derby Trial is enough to warrant serious consideration, but this Pletcher entry earned a respectable 96 Beyer in that race, which was his seventh straight start in graded stakes company. I might take a chance depending on the odds.
2- Schoolyard Dreams – Our local sports columnist likes this horse which had seconds in two Grade 3 preps before finishing fourth in the Wood Memorial last time out. I like others better.
3- Pleasant Prince – The other entrant from the Derby Trial probably looked like a Derby contender after narrowly losing to Ice Box in the Florida Derby. After a seventh at the Blue Grass Pleasant Prince ended up in the Derby Trial instead of the Derby where his distant third place finish doesn’t inspire. It might be a stretch, but you could do crazier things than bet on a horse that only lost to Ice Box by a nose.
4- Northern Giant – His washout in the Arkansas Derby last time out and the fact it took six tries to break his maiden don’t inspire much confidence. If you’re looking for a reason to back this Lukas trained entry, he does boast a third in the Grade 2 Risen Star and a second in the Grade 2 Lanes End earlier this spring.
5- Yawanna Twist – A lightly raced Dutrow entry, Yawanna Twist could be worth a shot as he has two firsts and two seconds in four lifetime starts, including seconds in the Gotham and Illinois Derby his last two tries. Might be worth a deuce.
6- Jackson Bend – The Derby was the first time this horse didn’t finish first or second. Who knows what to make of the 12th place finish in the Derby, but obviously Zito thinks enough of him to give him another shot, and he should have a decent price.
7- Lookin at Lucky – Baffert’s Derby favorite had a tough trip from the one hole at Churchill, and the ML has him as the second choice, so apparently the oddsmaker is giving him a pass on that one. Can’t be ignored, but I’ll pass given the likely low odds.
8- Super Saver – I liked him for the Derby and like him even better now. He’ll get bet down to nothing, but that’s the price of having a live triple crown hopeful.
9- Caracortado – Here’s a horse who was four for four as a two-year old, and began his three year old campaign with a win at the Grade 2 RB Lewis on the poly at Santa Anita. He’s trailed off a bit since with a third in the San Felipe and a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, but clearly it’s a horse with talent. Not sure how his resume on the poly translates to Pimlico, so I’ll pass.
10- Paddy O’Prado – Desormeaux got some heat for his ride in the Derby from the armchair jockey brigade, which should be ignored. PO’P’s impressive third place finish will make him a fashionable choice.
11- First Dude – Nothing really stands out for this horse. You could try to build a case on his third place finish in the Blue Grass after finishing 5th in the Florida Derby, but I won’t.
12- Dublin – Lukas brings Dublin back after an under-the-radar 7th in the Derby. He had hit the board in his three previous starts in graded stakes preps at Oaklawn, so he’s still worth a look and should carry a decent price.

I went to the Preakness five times in the early 90s when I lived in the DC-area, so I have some good memories of it, and hope to have a few more after Saturday.

I’m going to approach this race as more of a spectator than a handicapper. I’ll take Super Saver again, and box him in an exacta with Aikenite. May toss a deuce at Yawanna Twist if the odds are high enough. Go Super Saver!